Can Abbott be reelected if school employees quit voting for him?
Greg Abbott, one of the most anti-public education governors Texas has ever had, will probably be reelected to a fourth term next year if Texans who have the most to lose with Abbott don’t quit voting for him.
I am talking about the teachers and other public school employees who have voted for Abbott one, two or three times already and are still wondering why they aren’t paid more, or why their classrooms are so overcrowded, or why they get political orders about what they can or can’t teach their students.
Look at a political map of Abbott’s victory over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the 2022 general election, and you will see that O’Rourke won every large metropolitan county except Tarrant (Fort Worth). But most of the rest of Texas, except for several counties mainly along and near the Mexican border, are Republican red. (See link at the bottom of this item.)
The largest employers in many (maybe most) of those red towns and counties of rural and suburban Texas are school districts with many teachers, support staff and administrators who voted for Abbott. Many also voted for Donald Trump in last year’s presidential race and for the legislators who gave Abbott the voucher law that will divert $1 billion in tax funds from under-funded public schools to private schools and home-schoolers next year and many more billions in years to come.
Texas had 745,000 public school employees in 2020-21, and Abbott beat Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 883,000 votes the next year. So, the education vote was not the only factor in the election outcome last time. But Abbott will probably have a different opponent next year, and the stakes for public schools will be higher.
Educators, of course, are free to vote for whomever they choose for any reason they choose, and they are free to vote against the best interests of their profession and their students. Candidates like Abbott rely on that. Many Texas educators come from Republican political traditions, but the Republican Party of Trump and Abbott isn’t the Republican Party of anyone’s grandparents.
Any public school employees who think Abbott may be their choice for governor again should consider this. During his decade-plus in the governor’s office, Abbott has been slowly but surely squeezing public school budgets in favor of other priorities, including tax relief and school privatization. He has wrongly accused teachers of promoting ideology over truth, has advocated for book bans and has made it more difficult for teachers to do their jobs.
Abbott brags that during his time as governor he has increased funding for public education from $54 billion to $93 billion, but that doesn’t account for inflation and enrollment changes.
During the 2024-25 school year, the average teacher salary in Texas was more than $10,000 below the national average, and the average amount spent per Texas student in average daily attendance (ADA) was $5,600 less than the national average. Only three states – Utah, Oklahoma and Idaho – spent less per student. The additional funding that the Legislature appropriated for teacher pay and public education this year – the first real increase since 2019 – didn’t do much, if anything, to close those deficits.
If he is reelected, Abbott will be ready to start applying a stranglehold on future public education funding. That is what will happen if he succeeds in abolishing all school property taxes or puts so many restrictions on them it will be next to impossible for most school boards to raise the local revenue they need to keep their districts operating. Those are priorities Abbott laid out as he launched his reelection campaign last week.
So far, the Legislature has reimbursed school districts for the property tax breaks it has initiated. But the state will not be able to replace the lost revenue from all school property taxes without a huge increase in sales or other state taxes, which Abbott and his legislative allies will oppose.
Abbott’s answer will be more cuts in public education, including the jobs of many of those who voted for him. Elections have consequences. Educators can continue suffering the consequences of Abbott’s anti-public education policies. Or, they can do something about it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/texas-governor-results/