Tea Party is a big fish – in smaller ponds

Tuesday’s Republican runoffs proved once again that a political minority – in this case, the antigovernment Tea Party movement – can have a major impact in lowturnout elections. The runoffs, however, didn’t establish whether the Tea Baggers will remain a minority or have taken their first steps to emerging as a major force on the Texas political landscape.

Educators better hope for the former. When a group is out to slash public services, as the Tea Baggers are, the public schools and teachers – which justifiably account for a large share of the state budget – have a lot to fear. If you’re not happy with your pay or classroom resources now, wait and see what happens if the homeschoolers and voucher champions take over the statehouse.

Tea Party coalitions of antiestablishment voters were instrumental in Charles Perry’s unseating of longtime state Rep. Delwin Jones in Lubbock and the Republican victories of John Frullo and Van Taylor for open Texas House seats in Lubbock and Plano. Only Frullo will have a Democratic opponent in November.

Fewer than 8,000 votes were cast in the race that Frullo won, and only about 8,500 votes were cast in Taylor’s race. They won in conservative districts where the Tea Party has some clout, and the Tea Baggers turned out. The PerryJones race attracted about twice as many voters, but Jones has had a target on his back for several years now, mainly because of his opposition to former House Speaker Tom Craddick.

Tea Baggers were not as successful in runoff races with more voters. Their favorite candidate, Rick Green, lost a statewide race for a Texas Supreme Court nomination after more mainstream Republicans became alarmed and rallied around his opponent.

Another farright candidate, Brian Russell, lost a Republican nomination for the State Board of Education. He had even been endorsed by incumbent Cynthia Dunbar, a retiring leader of the rightwing bloc that has made the board a national laughingstock. But more moderate Republicans rallied behind Russell’s opponent, Marsha Farney, in a race that attracted four times as many voters as most legislative runoffs.

The only clearcut Tea Party victory in the March 2 Republican primary was David Simpson’s upset of state Rep. Tommy Merritt in East Texas. Many Tea Baggers undoubtedly voted for Gov. Rick (whatever happened to secession?) Perry, but their favorite candidate, Debra Medina, went down in flames.

State Sen. Dan Patrick of Houston is betting (and hoping) that Tea Baggers are the wave of Texas’ political future. And so, apparently, are the other 57 Republican legislators listed as charter members of the new group, Independent Conservative Republicans of Texas, which Patrick announced the day before the runoff with fond words of tribute to the Tea Party movement.

Patrick is (politically) right. But is he correct? Time will tell.